Earth Policy Institute Washington, DC

January 21, 2009

Moving to a Stable World Population

"Some 43 countries around the world now have populations that are either essentially stable or declining slowly,”� says Lester R. Brown, President of Earth Policy Institute, in a recent release. "In countries with the lowest fertility rates, including Japan, Russia, Germany, and Italy, populations will likely decline somewhat over the next half-century. A larger group of countries has reduced fertility to the replacement level or just below. Included in this group are China and the United States. A third group of countries is projected to more than double their populations by 2050, including Ethiopia, the Democratic Republic of the Congo, and Uganda."

The United Nations’ medium population projection, the one most commonly used, has world population reaching 9.2 billion by 2050. The high projection reaches 10.8 billion. The low projection, which assumes that the world will quickly move below replacement-level fertility to 1.6 children per couple, has population peaking at just under 8 billion in 2041 and then declining. If the goal is to eradicate poverty, hunger, and illiteracy, and lessen pressures on already strained natural resources, we have little choice but to strive for the lower projection.

Slowing world population growth means that all women should have access to family planning services. At present 201 million couples cannot obtain these services. Filling the family planning gap may be the most urgent item on the global agenda.

The good news is that countries that want to help couples reduce family size can do so quickly. In one decade Iran dropped its near-record population growth rate to one of the lowest in the developing world. When Ayatollah Khomeini assumed leadership in Iran in 1979, he immediately dismantled family planning programs and advocated for large families. In response to his pleas, fertility levels climbed, pushing Iran's annual population growth to a peak of 4.2 percent in the early 1980s. As this growth began to burden the economy and the environment, the country's leaders realized that overcrowding, environmental degradation, and unemployment were undermining Iran's future.

In 1989 the government did an about-face and restored its family planning program. In May 1993, a national family planning law was passed. The resources of several government ministries, including education, culture, and health, were mobilized to encourage smaller families. Some 15,000 "health houses" or clinics were established to provide rural populations with health and family planning services. Religious leaders were directly involved in what amounted to a crusade for smaller families. Iran introduced a full panoply of contraceptive measures, including the option of male sterilization—a first among Muslim countries. All forms of birth control were free of charge.

In addition to the direct health care interventions, a broad-based effort was launched to raise female literacy, boosting it from 25 percent in 1970 to more than 70 percent in 2000. Female school enrollment increased from 60 to 90 percent. (More details at www.earthpolicy.org/Updates/Update4ss.htm.)

Shifting to smaller families brings generous economic dividends. For Bangladesh, analysts concluded that $62 spent by the government to prevent an unwanted birth saved $615 in expenditures on other social services. Investing in reproductive health and family planning services leaves more fiscal resources per child for education and health care, thus accelerating the escape from poverty.

The United Nations estimates that meeting the needs of the 201 million women who do not have access to effective contraception could each year prevent 52 million unwanted pregnancies, 22 million induced abortions, and 1.4 million infant deaths. Put simply, the costs to society of not filling the family planning gap may be greater than we can afford. Visit http://www.earth-policy.org/Books/Seg/PB3ch07_ss3.htm to read the full report.

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