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/top_stories/article/27236

/top_stories/article/27236


From: Reuters
Published December 13, 2007 04:50 AM

SNB holds Swiss rates, says uncertainty abounds

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By Sven Egenter

ZURICH (Reuters) - The Swiss National Bank kept interest rates unchanged on Thursday for the first time in over two years despite rising inflation, and said it was closely watching threats to the economy from the global credit crisis.

The SNB said it remained unclear whether the worst of the crisis had passed. On Wednesday it joined the world's leading central banks in a surprise coordinated action to ease tensions in the interbank lending market.

The SNB said its target band for the 3-month Swiss franc LIBOR rate remained at 2.25-3.25 percent and that it continued to aim for the mid-point of the range, or 2.75 percent.

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"We will continue to keep a close watch on developments in the financial markets, the international economy, oil prices and the Swiss franc exchange rate, in order to assess their impact on the inflation outlook and to be in a position to react swiftly should the need arise," said SNB chairman Jean-Pierre Roth.

Markets took the statements as signaling lower chances for rate rises in 2008, interest rate futures showed.

The central bank raised its inflation forecast for 2008 to 1.7 percent from 1.5 percent but lowered it for 2009 to 1.5 percent from 1.8 percent. The SNB's threshold for price stability -- its main goal -- is 2 percent.

"While this improved inflation outlook in the medium term is fraught with considerable uncertainty as a result of the persistent weakness of the Swiss franc and the increase in commodity prices, it nevertheless allows the National Bank to adhere to its monetary policy course," the SNB said.

The financial crisis has spared the country's booming manufacturing sector, unlike hard-hit Swiss bank UBS <UBSN.VX> and other major financial players.

The central bank said economic growth would slow to around 2 percent in 2008 from an estimated rate of "over 2.5 percent" in 2007, the fourth year of growth above Switzerland's trend-growth rate.

RISKS REMAIN

But the SNB again voiced strong concern over the impact of the credit crisis, pointing to risks from the financial sector, which accounts for 15 percent of the economy.

"It is not impossible that problems which have so far been limited to a few partial markets could spill over to additional markets. Such a danger of contagion mainly exists for related credit markets that have so far been largely unaffected," said SNB board member Philipp Hildebrand.

"The SNB was never likely to shock markets with an interest rate hike today, particularly in the current environment of uncertainty," said Jennifer McKeown, an economist at Capital Economics in London. "While the Bank seems to have maintained a slight tightening bias, we think that slowing activity and a stronger franc will prevent further policy tightening."

On Wednesday the SNB joined the other major central banks including the U.S. Federal Reserve in the coordinated actions, launching a temporary term auction facility designed to ease funding pressures on banks.

In a Reuters poll, 40 out of 46 economists had expected the SNB to pause its gradual tightening on Thursday after raising rates by 25 basis points at its last eight quarterly meetings.

Only six analysts had bet on another SNB rate increase. They noted that inflation reached its highest level in over six years at 1.8 percent in November, approaching the SNB's threshold for price stability.

(Reporting by Sven Egenter and Thomas Atkins; editing by David Stamp)

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