Mathematical model developed to predict malaria outbreaks
Ethiopian and Norwegian researchers have developed a mathematical model that can identify conditions that increase the likelihood of a malaria outbreak up to two months ahead of its occurrence. The computer model, Open Malaria Warning (OMaWa), incorporates hydrological, meteorological, mosquito-breeding and land-use data to determine when and where outbreaks are likely to occur.
Torleif Markussen Lunde, one of the model's developers and a researcher at Norway’s University of Bergen, told SciDev.Net that the model made direct use of the limited real-time information available in typical rural areas.
"The model also reproduces observed mosquito species composition in Africa. It is the first time this has been done with a biophysical model. We are now looking at which areas in Africa the model can be applied," he said.
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Malaria Cell image via Wikipedia