Study: Experts’ Forecasts Sometimes Fall Short
August 30, 2007 07:55 AM - Institute for Operations Research and the Management Sciences
A study about predicting the outcome of actual conflicts found that the forecasts of experts who use their unaided judgment are little better than those of novices, according to a new study in a publication of the Institute for Operations Research and the Management Sciences. When presented with actual crises, such as a disguised version of a 1970s border dispute between Iraq and Syria and an unfolding dispute between football players and management, experts were able to forecast the decisions the parties made in only 32% of the cases, little better than the 29% scored by undergraduate students. Chance guesses at the outcomes would be right 28% of the time.
Sea to "Engulf" Tract of China's Pearl River Delta
August 30, 2007 07:20 AM - Reuters
A huge swathe of China's booming Pearl River Delta will be "engulfed" by rising sea water by the middle of the century because of global warming, state media said on Thursday, quoting weather officials.
Mankind to blame for warming but can slow damage
August 29, 2007 08:57 AM - Alister Doyle - Reuters
Mankind is to blame for climate change but governments still have time to slow accelerating damage at moderate cost if they act quickly, a draft U.N. report shows. Underlining the need for speed, it says a European Union goal of holding temperature rises to a maximum 2 Celsius (3.6 Fahrenheit) above pre-industrial times is almost out of reach. The 21-page study, due for release in November, lays out possible responses to global warming but cautions that some impacts are already inevitable, such as a gradual rise in sea levels that is set to last for centuries.
Mankind to Blame for Warming but Can Slow Damage, UN Says
August 29, 2007 08:34 AM - Alister Doyle, Reuters
Mankind is to blame for climate change but governments still have time to slow accelerating damage at moderate cost if they act quickly, a draft U.N. report shows. Underlining the need for speed, it says a European Union goal of holding temperature rises to a maximum 2 Celsius (3.6 Fahrenheit) above pre-industrial times is almost out of reach.
Study Says Greenhouse Warming Was Main Cause of Unusual Heat in 2006
August 29, 2007 08:18 AM - Randolph E. Schmid, Associated Press
Warming caused by human activity was the biggest factor in unusually high temperatures recorded in 2006 in the United States, according to a report by researchers at the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration.
India Tribe to Honor Al Gore on Global Warming
August 29, 2007 08:02 AM - Biswajyoti Das, Reuters
Tribal people in India's remote northeast plan to honour former U.S. Vice President Al Gore with an award for promoting awareness on climate change that they say will have a devastating impact on their homeland.
U.N. says climate deal in 2009 ideal, but complex
August 29, 2007 08:02 AM - Alister Doyle - Reuters
The U.N.'s top climate official said on Tuesday that agreeing a global deal by the end of 2009 to combat climate change would be ideal but noted much needs to be done. "There is this sense of urgency, we do need to get it completed as quickly as possible," Yvo de Boer told Reuters on the fringe of talks on global warming grouping 158 nations. Many experts say 2009 is the latest practical date to agree a climate pact to succeed the Kyoto Protocol beyond 2012. Any firm building a coal-fired power plant or a wind farm needs to know rules for greenhouse gas emissions years in advance.
Experts Say Greenhouse Gases Fueled 2006 US Heat, Not El Nino
August 28, 2007 05:40 PM - Deborah Zabarenko, Environment Correspondent
WASHINGTON - Greenhouse gas emissions -- not El Nino or other natural phenomena -- pushed U.S. temperatures for 2006 close to a record high, government climate scientists reported on Tuesday.
Antarctic Ozone Hole Appears Early, Growing
August 28, 2007 11:37 AM - Reuters
A hole in the ozone layer over Antarctica has appeared earlier than usual in 2007, the United Nations weather agency said on Tuesday. The World Meteorological Organization (WMO) said it would not be clear for several weeks whether the ozone hole, which is expected to continue growing until early October, would be larger than its record size in 2006. "It is still too early to give a definitive statement about the development of this year's ozone hole and the degree of ozone loss that will occur. This will, to a large extent, depend on the meteorological conditions," the Geneva-based agency said.
U.S. Says Steep Climate Curbs May Not Be Needed
August 28, 2007 07:57 AM - Alister Doyle, Reuters
Curbs needed to fight global warming could be less drastic than a 50-percent reduction in greenhouse gas emissions by 2050 favoured by the European Union, the United States' chief climate negotiator said on Monday.