Developing nations will bear the brunt of global warming. Public-private partnerships can help. Even if the world were to take steps to quickly and dramatically limit greenhouse-gas emissions, the levels already in the atmosphere will continue to alter our climate in the coming decades. As the focus of the debate on global warming shifts to assessing the impact of rises in temperature and coping with their effects, it has become increasingly clear that the developing world will face some of the greatest challenges. Dealing with this problem will require broad partnerships between public, private and nonprofit organizations.
Even if the world were to take steps to quickly and dramatically limit greenhouse-gas emissions, the levels already in the atmosphere will continue to alter our climate in the coming decades. As the focus of the debate on global warming shifts to assessing the impact of rises in temperature and coping with their effects, it has become increasingly clear that the developing world will face some of the greatest challenges. Dealing with this problem will require broad partnerships between public, private and nonprofit organizations.
The Stern Review estimates that by 2030, the cost of adapting to global warming will amount to anywhere between $55 billion and $180 billion per year, of which $30 billion to $70 billion will be required in developing countries. In absolute terms, the cost of adaptation is fairly evenly distributed, but in relative terms these numbers mean a real problem for countries without deep pockets. The United Nations Development Program (UNDP) estimates that of the 262 million people affected by climate disasters annually from 2000 to 2004, more than 98 percent were in the developing world.
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This will be especially problematic for populations heavily reliant on agriculture for their livelihood, as climate change will have a dramatic impact on the world's ability to produce food. We will see less rain in some areas, causing drought. We will see more rain in other areas, potentially causing floods. The latest UNDP report on climate change estimates that of the world's 1 billion people living on less than $1 a day, three quarters are primarily dependent on agriculture for survival.
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