Carmakers fear emission plan could ruin recovery

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SACRAMENTO – When President Barack Obama moved to increase gas mileage and curb tailpipe emissions last week, the leaders of the battle against global warming rejoiced. But his directives could steer automakers and the buying public down a bumpy road.

SACRAMENTO – When President Barack Obama moved to increase gas mileage and curb tailpipe emissions last week, the leaders of the battle against global warming rejoiced.

But his directives could steer automakers and the buying public down a bumpy road.

Along the way, critics warn, near-insolvent automakers will be forced to invest billions in new technology all the while hoping higher sticker prices and more-limited selections don't scare customers away from showrooms.

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But if Obama's targets are met, supporters counter, California and the nation will benefit economically and environmentally. Future car fleets should average 35 mpg and greenhouse gas emissions linked to global warming could be rolled back at least 30 percent in the state.

To reach those goals, automakers will rely not only on more efficient engines and transmissions, but improved tires, air conditioning and even body paint.

As part of his energy policy outlined last week, Obama instructed federal regulators to reopen California's request for permission to independently regulate greenhouse gas emissions from vehicle tailpipes – a request they are almost certain to approve. The Bush administration had blocked the waiver, which also affected about a dozen states poised to follow California's lead.

Secondly, Obama told his team to draft national standards that would require automakers to gradually increase fuel efficiency starting in 2011. By 2020, the president said, a 40 percent improvement to 35 mpg could save 2 million barrels of oil a day – “nearly the amount of oil that we import from the Persian Gulf.”

Obama's initiatives also swing momentum toward national emission standards – a move that would take away one of the chief complaints registered by automakers: that it is too cumbersome and costly to comply with rules that vary from state to state.

In California, a federal reversal on regulating greenhouse gas emissions would bring evolutionary, rather than revolutionary, changes at first. And the expected increase in national gas mileage standards will help accelerate reductions, potentially accounting for 18 percent of the state's long-term goal to curb greenhouse gas emissions across all industries.

But can a slumping industry respond? Although state regulators think so, Mark Gilles, executive editor of Car and Driver magazine, is not so sure.

“This is not a question of them crying wolf,” said Gilles, who is closely monitoring developments in California. “There is a chance they can do it. But it's only a chance.”

Automakers appear certain to comply with the state's early targets for greenhouse gas emissions because they rushed more gas-sipping models out of factories during last year's run-up in pump prices to more than $4 a gallon.

“They are on track,” said Mary Nichols, chairwoman of the California Air Resources Board. “There's nothing (initially) that would cause a drastic reconfiguration of the industry. It pushes them in the direction they should be going.”

In the next few years, sleek, aerodynamic cars sporting six-speed transmissions will roll off assembly lines in larger numbers. Hybrids, which run on gas and battery power, will command more sales.

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