From: Andy Soos. ENN
Published October 21, 2010 02:51 PM

Winter Woes

Predicting the weather has always been a joyous sport and great conversation.  NOAA has made some predictions for the US.  The Pacific Northwest should brace for a colder and wetter than average winter, while most of the South and Southeast will be warmer and drier than average through February 2011, according to the annual Winter Outlook released today by NOAA’s Climate Prediction Center. A moderate to strong La Niña will be the dominant climate factor influencing weather across most of the U.S. this winter. La Niña is associated with cooler than normal water temperatures in the Equatorial Pacific Ocean, unlike El Niño which is associated with warmer than normal water temperatures. Both of these climate phenomena, which typically occur every 2-5 years, influence weather patterns throughout the world and often lead to extreme weather events. Last winter’s El Niño contributed to record-breaking rain and snowfall leading to severe flooding in some parts of the country, with record heat and drought in other parts of the country.

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"Other climate factors will play a role in the winter weather at times across the country," added Halpert. "Some of these factors, such as the North Atlantic Oscillation, are difficult to predict more than one to two weeks in advance. The Oscillation adds uncertainty to the forecast in the Northeast and Mid-Atlantic portions of the country."

Regional highlights include:

Pacific Northwest: colder and wetter than average. La Niña often brings lower than average temperatures and increased mountain snow to the Pacific Northwest and western Montana during the winter months, which is good for the replenishment of water resources and winter recreation but can also lead to greater flooding and avalanche concerns; (In other worlds cold and snowy.)

Southwest: warmer and drier than average. This will likely exacerbate drought conditions in these areas. All southern states are at risk of having above normal wildfire conditions starting this winter and lasting into the spring; (Or warm and dry)

Northern Plains: colder and wetter than average. Likely to see increased storminess and flooding; (Cold and snowy.)

Southern Plains, Gulf Coast States & Southeast: warmer and drier than average. This will likely exacerbate drought conditions in these areas. All southern states are at risk of having above normal wildfire conditions starting this winter and lasting into the spring; (Dry and warm)

Florida: drier than average, with an equal chance for above-, near-, or below-normal temperatures. Above normal wildfire conditions; (Just dryer)

Ohio and Tennessee Valleys: warmer and wetter than average. Likely to see increased storminess and flooding; (Warm and wet.)

Northeast and Mid-Atlantic: equal chances for above-, near-, or below-normal temperatures and precipitation. Winter weather for these regions is often driven not by La Niña but by weather patterns over the northern Atlantic Ocean and Arctic. These are often more short-term, and are generally predictable only a week or so in advance. If enough cold air and moisture are in place, areas north of the Ohio Valley and into the Northeast could see above-average snow; (All is uncertain or it depends.

Central U.S.: equal chances of above-near-or below normal temperatures and precipitation;

Hawaii: drier than normal through November, then wetter than normal December through February. Statewide, the current drought is expected to continue through the winter, with several locations remaining on track to become the driest year on record. Drought recovery is more likely on the smaller islands of Kauai and Molokai, and over the windward slopes of the Big Island and Maui;

Alaska: odds favor colder than average temperatures with equal chances of above or below normal precipitation. The interior and southern portions of the state are currently drier than normal. A dry winter may set Alaska up for a greater chance of above normal wildfire conditions in the spring. (Cold and snowy.)

Weather predictions for the rest of the world have not been formally released. However, Netweather.net has hazarded some estimated for the United Kingdom(UK).

Their model sees average or slightly colder than average temperatures for the UK, coldest in the south-east and mildest in the north with central Europe slightly below average with below average rainfall.

As always weather is unpredictable and the actual results may well vary.

For further information: http://www.noaanews.noaa.gov/stories2010/20101021_winteroutlook.html or http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/predictions/multi_season/13_seasonal_outlooks/color/churchill.php

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