HAVANA (Reuters) - Cuba's rubber-stamp National Assembly will meet on Sunday to name retiring Cuban leader Fidel Castro's successor, and few people are placing bets on anyone other than his brother Raul Castro.
By Anthony Boadle
HAVANA (Reuters) - Cuba's rubber-stamp National Assembly will meet on Sunday to name retiring Cuban leader Fidel Castro's successor, and few people are placing bets on anyone other than his brother Raul Castro.
The younger Castro has provisionally held power since his brother fell ill in July 2006 and the stage is set for him to be formally confirmed as head of state.
Raul Castro, at 76 the world's longest serving defense minister, is the obvious pick for a government that feels threatened by the Bush administration at the vulnerable moment of losing the charismatic leadership of its founder Fidel Castro, debilitated by illness, after 49 years at the helm.
!ADVERTISEMENT!"National defense and internal stability are the watchwords right now," a member of the ruling Communist Party said, requesting anonymity.
"More than anything, Raul signifies stability and continuity at a time of great anxiety and uncertainty," said Frank Mora, an expert on Cuba at the National War College in Washington.
Castro, who turned Cuba into a Soviet ally during the Cold War after seizing power in an armed revolution in 1959, has not appeared in public since emergency intestinal surgery forced him to delegate power almost 19 months ago.
The 81-year-old revolutionary icon announced his retirement as head of state and commander in chief of the armed forces on Tuesday, saying he was too ill to continue. He will retain veto power as first secretary of the Communist Party.
The National Assembly's 614 legislative deputies, elected last month, will convene on Sunday morning to approve a list of the 31 members of the Council of State, Cuba's top executive body headed by the president or head of state, a first vice president and five more second-tier vice presidents.
In theory, the presidency could go to a younger leader, such as Vice President Carlos Lage, the architect of limited reforms that opened Cuba to foreign investment and tourism and allowed small private entrepreneurs to emerge in the 1990s crisis following the collapse of the Soviet Union.
But Cuba watchers see that as too bold a move and expect Lage, 56, to become deputy leader of the country as first vice president with a hands-on role in day-to-day governing.
"I think there is a good chance that Carlos Lage will become an actual or de facto prime minister, and an outside chance he will become president, with Raul pulling all the strings in the background," said Brian Latell, a former CIA analyst and author of a book called "After Fidel."
GENERATIONAL SHIFT
A ministerial shuffle will be decided at a subsequent date by the Council of State, the governing body whose members are approved by the parliament after elections every five years.
Experts on Cuba will be watching the composition of the new council to see what roles are given to reformers and get a sense of the direction Cuba will take for the next five years.
As acting president, Raul Castro has fomented open debate on the failures of Cuba's socialist state, from low wages to decrepit housing, unproductive state farms and a widespread black market.
A key sign will be the number of new faces replacing the old guard that came to power with the Castros in 1959.
"Change should be gauged by the presence of individuals not of the revolutionary generation, that is, people under 60," said Marifeli Perez-Stable, a sociologist at the Inter-American Dialogue think tank in Washington.
No purges are expected on Sunday, but the rise or fall of Fidel Castro proteges could signal policy changes.
One young leader groomed by Fidel Castro as his personal secretary, Foreign Minister Felipe Perez Roque, 42, is seen as a rising star among Cuba's young generation of leaders, and is a strong candidate to become one of the vice presidents.
One old face that will continue to have a major say is Fidel Castro himself, said Domingo Amuchastegui, a former Cuban intelligence officer who defected to Miami in 1994.
"For several years to come Fidel Castro will remain a key player with an active role as kingmaker, behind the throne," he said. "He is not out of the game!"
(Reporting by Marc Frank, editing by Jim Loney and David Storey)
(For special coverage from Reuters on Castro's retirement, see: http://www.reuters.com/news/globalcoverage/cuba)
