When mere seconds of storm warning could mean the difference between harm or safety, two researchers with Western University ties have developed a tornado-prediction method they say could buy as much as 20 minutes more warning time.
These radar-based calculations can forecast a tornado, with 90 per cent accuracy within a 100-kilometre radius, say Anna Hocking, a Western alumna and PhD, and Prof. Wayne Hocking, who leads the Atmospheric Dynamics Group based at Western’s Department of Physics and Astronomy in the Faculty of Science.
They have authored a paper entitled “Tornado Identification and Forewarning with VHF Windprofiler Radars,” published today in Atmospheric Science Letters, a journal of the Royal Meteorological Society.
“Typically, meteorologists look for specific signatures that include wind speeds plus an overshoot, a dome-like knob that forms atop a thundercloud,” said Anna Hocking. “What we’ve been able to do, for the first time, is add in and quantify a third factor: turbulence.”
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