Clearing the Air: Tami Bond’s Computer Model Is Best Forecast Yet on Policies Aiming to Control Soot

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In the February 11 issue of Nature Sustainability, a multi-institution team unveiled a new tool for understanding and controlling the health and climate impacts of shipping goods – a source not only of greenhouse gases but of soot and smog threatening our health.

In the February 11 issue of Nature Sustainability, a multi-institution team unveiled a new tool for understanding and controlling the health and climate impacts of shipping goods – a source not only of greenhouse gases but of soot and smog threatening our health.

In the journal, Hertz Fellow Tami Bond (’95), Professor of Civil Engineering at the University of Illinois, and her team presented an extensive computational model of the environmental impact of the American shipping industry. Unprecedented in its complexity, the model connects everything from the chemical intricacies of diesel exhaust to the geography and economics of our truck-dependent shipping infrastructure.

Using the model to predict the warming and health impacts of American freight over the next 30 years, the team pointed to three policies which, applied over the coming decades, could save up to 4,000 lives per year and cut the warming contributions of our shipping by a quarter.

The policies included a carbon tax ramping up to $100/ton over the next 30 years, compliance with existing maintenance regulations, and more compact urban development. The results showed that existing efficiency regulations will save up to 3,000 lives per year by 2050, and perfect compliance could save up to 1,000 more. The carbon tax, provides the vast majority of climate benefits, reducing both long- and short-term warming by nearly a quarter by itself.

Read more at Fannie and John Hertz Foundation

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