A first-of-its-kind study in Nature finds that with bold and coordinated policy choices—across emissions, diets, food waste, and water and nitrogen efficiency—humanity could, by 2050, bring global environmental pressures back to levels seen in 2015.
A first-of-its-kind study in Nature finds that with bold and coordinated policy choices—across emissions, diets, food waste, and water and nitrogen efficiency—humanity could, by 2050, bring global environmental pressures back to levels seen in 2015. This shift would move us much closer to a future in which people around the world can live well within the Earth’s limits. “Our results show that it is possible to steer back toward safer limits, but only with decisive, systemic change,” says lead author Prof Detlef Van Vuuren, a researcher at Utrecht University and the Netherlands Environmental Assessment Agency (PBL).
The planetary boundaries framework, first introduced by an international team of scientists in 2009, defines nine critical Earth system processes that maintain the conditions under which human societies have flourished for the past 10,000 years. Crossing these boundaries increases the risk of destabilising the Earth system, pushing it into a much less hospitable state. To date, scientists estimate that six of these nine boundaries have already been crossed—those related to climate change, biosphere integrity, freshwater availability, land use, nutrient pollution and novel entities.
Coming Back From the Brink
This new study for the first time shifts focus to the future, exploring whether ambitious but technically feasible policies could change our trajectory. “This is the first time we’ve used a forward-looking global model to ask: how do things develop if we continue like this? Can we still avoid transgressing or come back from transgressing these boundaries? And if so, what would it take?” says Van Vuuren.
Read more at Utrecht University
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