Clouding the Forecast: Study Reveals Why So Many Climate Models Are Wrong About the Rate of Arctic Warming

Typography

The key may lie in wintertime Arctic clouds, as climate models underestimate how much liquid they contain and how much heat they trap, leading to skewed warming predictions.

The key may lie in wintertime Arctic clouds, as climate models underestimate how much liquid they contain and how much heat they trap, leading to skewed warming predictions.

The Arctic is one of the coldest places on Earth, but in recent decades, the region has been rapidly warming, at a rate three to four times faster than the global average. However, current climate models have been unable to account for this increased pace.

Now, two researchers from Kyushu University, graduate student Momoka Nakanishi, from the Interdisciplinary Graduate School of Engineering Sciences, along with her adviser, Associate Professor Takuro Michibata, from the Research Institute for Applied Mechanics, have reported in a study, published April 29 in Ocean-Land-Atmosphere Research, that clouds may be to blame.

The most common clouds found in the Arctic are mixed-phase clouds, which contain both ice crystals and supercooled liquid water droplets. In the Arctic summer, when the sun shines around the clock, these clouds act like a parasol, reflecting sunlight back into space and providing a cooling effect. But in the long, dark Arctic winter, when there’s no sunlight to reflect, these clouds act more like a blanket, trapping heat that’s radiated from the Earth’s surface and sending it back down to the Arctic’s surface.

Read more at Kyushu University

Image: The Arctic is one of the coldest places on Earth, but in recent decades, the region has been rapidly warming, at a rate three to four times faster than the global average. However, current climate models have been unable to account for this increased pace. Now, researchers from Kyushu University have reported in a study, published April 29 in Ocean-Land-Atmosphere Research, that clouds may be to blame. (Credit: 2012 RUSALCA Expedition, RAS-NOAA | Kate Stafford)