What Traits Matter When Predicting Disease Emergence in New Populations?

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When a disease-causing virus or other organism is transmitted from one species to another, most of the time the infection sputters and dies out.

When a disease-causing virus or other organism is transmitted from one species to another, most of the time the infection sputters and dies out. On rare occasions, the infection can perpetuate transmission in the new host species and cause a pandemic. For example, scientists are keeping a close eye on H5N1 highly pathogenic avian influenza, which causes bird flu and has been found in cows and humans. But is there a way to anticipate when infections will die out on their own and when they will persist?

New research, led by scientists at Penn State and the University of Minnesota Duluth, identified certain characteristics that could help predict whether the pathogen will stick around. Understanding how a virus spreads and what influences its spread soon after it spills over to a new population could provide information to help stop new diseases from spreading, the team said.

Read More at: Penn State

David Kennedy, associate professor of biology at Penn State, and Clara Shaw, now assistant professor of biology at the University of Minnesota Duluth (Photo Credit: Keith Hickey / Penn State)