Climate Change Could Drastically Reduce Aquifer Recharge in Brazil

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The global climate crisis could significantly impact the natural replenishment of Brazilian aquifers, reducing the groundwater supply across the country. 

The global climate crisis could significantly impact the natural replenishment of Brazilian aquifers, reducing the groundwater supply across the country. This is the conclusion of a study by scientists from the University of São Paulo’s Institute of Geosciences (IGc-USP) and the National Institute for Space Research (INPE). The scientists analyzed the impact of various climate scenarios on water availability by the end of the century. The study was published in the journal Environmental Monitoring and Assessment.

Groundwater is water that accumulates below the Earth’s surface in geological formations called aquifers. It slowly infiltrates the soil after rainfall and supplies wells, springs, rivers, and ecosystems. In Brazil, an estimated 112 million people (56% of the population) rely totally or partially on this source.

The IGc-USP and INPE study employed a water balance model based on geoprocessing and corrected climate projection data from the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project Phase 6 (CMIP6) to estimate temperature, precipitation, surface runoff, and aquifer recharge changes between 2025 and 2100. CMIP6 unifies data from various research centers worldwide and is the most recent model produced by the World Climate Research Program (WCRP).

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Image: Main aquifers in Brazil, considering their water potential (Credit: IBGE School Geographic Atlas)