Warming may lead to less frequent but bigger and more devastating hail storms, new research has shown.
Warming may lead to less frequent but bigger and more devastating hail storms, new research has shown.
Climate experts from Newcastle University, the Met Office and the University of Bristol used European-wide km-scale simulations to model future changes to hail with global warming. Published in the journal Nature Communications, the findings show that, under a high-emissions scenario (RCP8.5), severe hail is likely to become less common, except potentially for very large hail.
Severe hail has a diameter of 2 cm, while a diameter of 5 cm or more is considered very large. Bigger hailstones cause more damage than smaller ones, and even a small increase in their size could outweigh any benefits from having fewer hailstorms overall.
The researchers attribute this decrease to more than one factor. Hail forms higher in the atmosphere as it warms, where storm updrafts could be weaker, and this gives hail more time to melt before reaching the ground. Another factor is the weakening large scale circulation, affecting the vertical profile of winds and leading to environments not beneficial for thunderstorm organization.
Read More: Newcastle University
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