The breakthrough enhances scientific understanding of the dangerous storms and their long-term impacts on the climate.
The breakthrough enhances scientific understanding of the dangerous storms and their long-term impacts on the climate.
On September 5, 2020, California’s Creek Fire grew so severe that it began producing it’s own weather system. The fire’s extreme heat produced an explosive thunderhead that spewed lightning strikes and further fanned the roaring flames, making containment elusive and endangering the lives of firefighters on the ground. These wildfire-born storms have become a growing part of fire seasons across the West, with lasting impacts on air quality, weather, and climate. Until now, scientists have struggled to replicate them in Earth system models, hindering our ability to predict their occurrence and understand their impacts on the global climate. Now, a new study provides a breakthrough by developing a novel wildfire-Earth system modeling framework.
The research, published September 25th in Geophysical Research Letters, represents the first successful simulation of these wildfire-induced storms, known as pyrocumulonimbus clouds, within an Earth system model. Led by DRI scientist Ziming Ke, the study successfully reproduced the observed timing, height, and strength of the Creek Fire’s thunderhead – one of the largest known pyrocumulonimbus clouds seen in the U.S., according to NASA. The model also replicated multiple thunderstorms produced by the 2021 Dixie Fire, which occurred under very different conditions. Accounting for the way that cloud development is aided by moisture lofted into the higher reaches of the atmosphere by terrain and winds is key to their findings.
“This work is a first-of-its-kind breakthrough in Earth system modeling,” Ke said. “It not only demonstrates how extreme wildfire events can be studied within Earth system models, but also establishes DRI’s growing capability in Earth system model development — a core strength that positions the institute to lead future advances in wildfire–climate science.”
Read More: Desert Research Institute
Image: A developing pyrocumulonimbus cloud above Oregon's Gulch Fire, part of the Beaver Complex Fire, in 2014. (Credit: NASA)
