According to two recently published studies led by scientists from Brazil’s National Institute for Space Research (INPE), the Brazilian Amazon is already beginning to experience scenarios previously projected for the coming decades, including longer dry seasons and changes in rainfall patterns.
According to two recently published studies led by scientists from Brazil’s National Institute for Space Research (INPE), the Brazilian Amazon is already beginning to experience scenarios previously projected for the coming decades, including longer dry seasons and changes in rainfall patterns. Without integrated policies and initiatives to combat climate change, the situation could rapidly intensify, posing risks to biodiversity, the replenishment of natural water reservoirs, and the functioning of the forest.
The studies, which are based on climate models that incorporate regional dynamics, also serve as a warning for this year and next, as there is the possibility of a “super El Niño.” This phenomenon is characterized by the warming of the Pacific Ocean in the equatorial region. In its most intense form, it can raise temperatures by more than 2 °C above average, causing major changes in atmospheric circulation and rainfall patterns on a global scale.
One of the studies indicates that the dry season in the Amazon is lengthening from four to six months, with a water deficit exceeding -150 millimeters (mm) during that period. The article, published in the International Journal of Climatology, points to greater climate instability, more extreme events outside seasonal patterns, and increased forest degradation associated with fire.
Another study, which appears in the March issue of Perspectives in Ecology and Conservation, analyzes the drought recorded in the Amazon between 2023 and 2024, during which Brazil was heavily affected by El Niño. The findings reveal a 9% increase in burned areas and a 19% increase in forest degradation alerts, with up to 4.2 million hectares impacted by fire at the peak of the drought. These results demonstrate that the cycle of drought, fire, and degradation is intensifying and reducing the ability of the ecosystem to recover.
Read More: Fundação de Amparo à Pesquisa do Estado de São Paulo
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