A decade-long study of earthquake activity in California has provided the strongest evidence to date that forecasting models can reliably describe patterns of earthquake activity over the following day.
A decade-long study of earthquake activity in California has provided the strongest evidence to date that forecasting models can reliably describe patterns of earthquake activity over the following day.
The University of Bristol-led study, published in Nature Communications, could help millions of people living in earthquake-prone countries make better-informed decisions about seismic risk, particularly during ongoing periods of increased earthquake activity.
Recent earthquakes in Colombia, Japan and Venezuela have offered stark reminders of the importance of being as well-prepared as possible for potential earthquakes.
To find out how reliable current earthquake forecast models are, researchers evaluated 27 earthquake forecasting models that, over the course of more than a decade, automatically generated a unique database of more than 50,000 next-day forecasts for California. The forecasts were contrasted against almost 600 earthquakes of magnitude 3.95 or greater recorded over the testing period.
Read More: University of Bristol
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