A new study on how rising temperatures will affect rice production in Science Advances compares 214 observations from field-warming experiments with seven crop models, revealing modelled estimates for yield reductions from 1°C of global warming were roughly half those of the real-world observed experiments (3.8 percent instead of 8.1 percent).
A new study on how rising temperatures will affect rice production in Science Advances compares 214 observations from field-warming experiments with seven crop models, revealing modelled estimates for yield reductions from 1°C of global warming were roughly half those of the real-world observed experiments (3.8 percent instead of 8.1 percent). The study was led by the Helmholtz Centre for Environmental Research with contributions from the Potsdam Institute for Climate Impact Research (PIK).
Rice is a staple food for more than half of the world’s population, but estimates of how climate change will affect production vary widely. One reason for this is that many scientific assessments do not clearly distinguish between the more gradual effects of higher average temperatures, versus acute damage caused by heat extremes.
In the new study, results from 214 observed experiments show that extreme heat (exposure to temperatures above 30°C) is the dominant factor behind rice yield losses from warming. At more than 70 percent of observed sites, high-temperature exposure accounted for more than half of absolute yield change.
However, when compared to seven crop models, the models were shown to be less sensitive to heat extremes than the real-world observations.
Read More: Potsdam Institute for Climate Impact Research (PIK)
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